Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone suggests that the situation in the global economy is close to a denouement. By his estimate, the overheated U.S. stock market scores a 10 out of 10 as a driver of inflation or deflation, and this may be an «endgame signal».
McGlone links the current scenario to the political context: the affordability of living has become one of the main election topics, the U.S. midterm elections lie ahead, and inflation remains a key concern for the incumbent administration.
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What McGlone's charts show
According to McGlone, in 2026 gold and bitcoin (BTC) have apparently «reverted to the mean», and this may mean that beta assets are next. According to the expert, on the annual chart Bloomberg's index of the aggregate value of U.S. Treasury obligations is likely forming a bottom, with a low around 1983 relative to the precious metal. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has lost about 50% from its 2025 peak above $126,000.
As the strategist noted, one should not read too much into this reversal, since gold and bitcoin did not turn on their own but against a backdrop of record-high readings in the ratio of the S&P 500 to GDP — this metric is holding at its highest level since 1928. That is, bitcoin recovered and gold did not cheapen solely because of strong stock gains. Once the stock market falls, the upside potential for the precious metal, in McGlone's view, is even greater.
The gold-to-Treasury ratio at a historic extreme
A similar picture is described by the Quant & Algorithmic analytical project. According to its experts, the ratio of gold to U.S. Treasury obligations is showing the second-largest historical deviation from its quadratic trend line.
A higher reading was recorded only once — in August 2011. Back then, the combination of the debt crisis in the U.S. and the downgrade of the country's credit rating pushed gold to record levels.
Source: BeInCrypto
