Selling pressure on altcoins on spot exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since 2020. At the same time, according to another indicator, net selling outside of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has already lasted 15 months in a row.
Two CryptoQuant indicators paint an opposite picture. According to the platform, the 180-day Altcoin Season Index is approaching values that have historically signaled the start of an altcoin season.
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Two signals from CryptoQuant diverge
The metric tracks the cumulative difference between the volumes of altcoin purchases and sales, excluding BTC and ETH. Its drop to the lowest level since 2020 indicates that sales on spot exchanges have already «outweighed» purchases for a long time.
The indicator began returning to zero in early 2025, but then turned downward again and continued to fall in the following months. CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech shared his view.
«This is not about a drawdown. We are seeing 15 months of continuous net sales on spot exchanges», — the expert emphasized.
The Altcoin Season Index shows the opposite trend. Right now, this 180-day CryptoQuant indicator stands at 18.48. According to the analyst, altcoin season «comes alive» when the value rises above 20. In other words, the market has not yet reached the threshold: it is only preparing for a capital rotation.
Analysts differ on the prospects for an altcoin season
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson believes that many altcoins, having fallen sharply in price in 2025 and early 2026, may set new historic lows.
According to him, a significant part of the market has already entered the «depression» phase of the current cycle: at this stage many are exiting projects, while large holders quietly continue to accumulate assets.
«The growth of Bitcoin's share will most likely come at the expense of the top-20 altcoins and stablecoins. This does not mean that all altcoins will disappear. More likely, one can expect capital to start flowing somewhat selectively», — the expert noted.
Source: BeInCrypto
